If 2008 was a watershed year for social media and political campaigns, with Barack Obama’s much-lauded use of Twitter and Facebook, 2012 has truly seen social media take a leading role in how the U.S. election looks set to pan out.
With far more platforms than four years ago, and candidates Obama and Romney both using them to great effect, the U.S. Presidential race is going all the way to the wire.
Here at Jugnoo, we were interested to see how social media conversations and buzz played into the equation and whether the debates could swing any undecided voters.
The results were fascinating and showed not only a close race (despite sentiment leaning towards Obama), but one where the smallest “indiscretion” can have a huge and immediate impact on perception of the candidates.
To highlight the information and findings, we created this infographic below.
Taking into account the sentiment and buzz around the election, we are predicting that Obama will win a second term by a small margin, while the Republicans will take the Senate and hold the House in convincing fashion, with voters supporting the party more than Mitt Romney.
One of the areas we spent a lot of time on was forums and boards. Most social media analysis leaves this out and just looks at public updates which, for us, misses a big part of the true conversation. This led us to these stats behind the monitoring:
- 1,864,000 tweets
- 1,122,600 Facebook posts
- 513,000 forum discussions
- 167,600 blog discussions (posts and comments)
- 19,160 videos (posts and comments)
- 127,700 news articles (and discussions)
So, to recap – Obama for the White House, and the Republican Party for the Senate and House. Social media told us so.
I guess we’ll all find out next week!
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<a target=”_blank” href=”http://join.jugnoo.com/social-media-marketing/”><img src=”http://blog.jugnoo.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/US-Election-Prediction-2012-10-29-V6.jpg” border=0></a>